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1
A. VITAL STATISTICS.
I.—POPULATION.
Comment was made in the last Report—that for the five years, 1914-18—on the
uncertainty attaching to estimates of population for the years subsequent to 1913. It
can only be said that such uncertainty increased during the years now under review.
The estimates furnished by the Registrar-General will be found in Table I. Appendix.
While recognising that one guess is as good as another, it has been thought worth
while to make an attempt to examine what have been the probable changes in the
population of the Borough since 1913. Until that year at least all available evidence
pointed to a steady but small annual decrease in the number of residents. For the
purpose of this examination the necessary calculations have been based on—
(1).—The results of the enumerations of 1901 and 1911, on the assumption that
the observed rate of growth (decrease) continued unchanged; and
(2).—The variations in the number of assessments reported as "empty" on
June 30th, of each year.
As regards the former method it is unnecessary to offer any explanation, as it was,
prior to the war, the recognised basis of all methods of estimating population. The
other method is, it is believed, novel and the results obtained must be accepted with
some reserve. More extended trial is necessary to test its reliability. Moreover, to
derive the full advantage of the method, some changes appear to be necessary in
compiling the assessment returns. Briefly stated, the method adopted was—
(1).—To take out the total number of assessments, and the number of
"empties" on April 1, 1911 and thus obtain the nett number of
"occupied" assessments;
(2).—To determine the average number of persons per "occupied" assessment,
using the total population enumerated at the Census of that year; and
(3).—To estimate the population for each year—on June 30—by applying the
averages obtained to the number of "occupied" assessments at that date.
In actual working the average per assessment was determined for each Ward—
Lancaster Gate, West and East Wards being treated as one Ward—the figure for the
Borough as a whole being used solely as a check on the other calculations. (The results
are set out below).
Year 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920
Estimates based on—
(a) Census data 1901 & 1911 142,513 142,362 142.229 142,087 141,946 141,803 141,582 141,422 141,259 141,095
(b) Occupied Assessments 143,789 145,164 146,691 148,411 147,429 145,655 146,012 146,695 149,823 154,898
(c) Estimates furnished by) 142 513 142,362 142,210 142,193 142,193 142,169 136,561 131,673 149,941 150,128
the Registrar-General
Supplemetary information of uncertain value was given by
(i) The National Registration in November, 1915—showing a population of 130,041 persons;
(ii) The issue of "Sugar Cards" in November 1917—when the cards issued numbered 38,275 representing
121,457 persons; and
(iii) The issue of "Ration" Cards and Books—in July, 1918—to 128,123 persons,
,, ,, in November, 1918—to 126,814 persons, and
,, ,, ,, in September, 1919—to 141,830 persons.
The differences exhibited by the various estimates are most erratic and impossible to
explain at the present time. It can only be observed that there is good reason to believe
that the estimates for the later years based on the census data of 1901 and 1911 are not
trustworthy and that since (say) 1914 the population of the Borough has increased, whatever
may have been the temporary fluctuations occasioned by the War. Not only has there
been a decreasing proportion of empty assessments, but many properties formerly rated and
assessed as units are now in effect multiple assessments—that is to say the single assessment
which formerly represented one family now covers two or more families.
That the population of the Borough is at the present time an increasing one is almost
beyond dispute. The percentage of "Empties" has fallen from 8.7 at June 30, 1911, to 2.5 at
the corresponding date in 1920 (see next page). In addition there has been during the