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83
The percentage deaths in each age-group agree sufficiently
closely to permit of the assumption that there was no local influence
which caused any serious deviation from the normal of the deathrates,
either of the separate age-groups or of the entire population.
From this then, particularly in view of the fact that this older
population is resident on the fringes of the Estate, one can assume
that the same applies to the Estate population.
It being accepted then that there arc no local influences which
arc instrumental in causing marked deviations in the death-rate
for any particular age-group, the only remaining explanation of
the deficiency in deaths in particular groups is that the deviations
are due to alterations in the population at risk in each group.
If this be the case, then the following would be the distribution
of the population based on the 1927 figures, the age-group 25/44
being taken as unity :—
Age-group 0/14 normal; group 15/24 one-third represented;
group 45/49 one-half represented; and population over
50, only 10% represented.
This is in accord with what is known of the population of the
Housing Estate. The tenants are mostly those with young
children—and are, therefore, a young adult population. In the
case of persons over 50, their families would mostly have reached
adolescence—neither the adults nor the children would in that
ease have conic here. This would account for the paucity of
adults over 50 and also for the relative deficiency in age-group
15/24. Even in the ease of those families with adolescent children
at the time of transfer here, the children having obtained work
in Town would frequently remain with relatives there and not
come to reside here with their parents. Although not originally
included as the original tenants at the time of allocation of a house,
in many cases an elderly relative to one of the parents has since
come to reside in the house. This practice, together with the
fact that each year sees a number passing the 50 age, will gradually
increase the proportion of those over 50 as compared with those
under 50.