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13
a knowledge of the actual distribution of the population in their
respective age and sex groups, a piece of information which
will not be available until a census is taken.
The very low figure of the Recorded Death Rate is of course
due to the unusual distribution of age and possibly to some
extent of sex. Ordinarily 60% of total deaths occur in persons
over the age of 50. In this district this age group is poorly
represented as yet and this accounts for the deficiency of deaths
per 1,000 population.
It is recognised that the mortality of a population where
there is a large excess of births over deaths will be lower
than that of a stationary population, unless emigration causes
any great changes. Also that newly settled communities and
particularly rapidly growing towns have a low death rate.
As long as the estate continues to grow the death rate will
favour the district owing to preponderance at these favourable
ages. Against this of course, is the effect of a high birth rate
which, because of the heavy death rate in the first year of life,
will add to the number of deaths. But this same birth rate if
continued, results in the production of a population containing
a large number of persons who are at a period having a very
low death rate.
Each year, however, will see a number passing over the age of
50; that is, an increasing number passing into the age group
with a higher-than-average mortality instead of being in the
group with a lower-than-average mortality. This will mean
a slowly rising death rate. This influence will probably not be
apparent until the influx into the growing estate ceases, as
until then, the effect will be over-balanced by the other factors
making more strongly for a low death rate.
On cessation of expansion, however, the death rate for this
district will probably slowly rise until the age distribution of
the area becomes normal. This, theoretically, will not be until
some 40 years after the cessation of influx into the district,
by which time the deficiency in the age group 15 to 24 has been
removed by those particular persons passing through their
successive age groups until removed by their death.
Before this time, there will be other disturbing factors to
alter the age distribution, even to such an extent as to adversely
affect the death rate. At some future date it is probable there
will not be sufficient accommodation for the present children
when they reach the age of adolescence. They might therefore
leave the district. The loss of these people at ages which
normally have a low death rate would raise the Recorded Death
Rate, even possibly to a figure above that of the country as a
whole.