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made of Census figures. Since then, the Census form has become
progressively more comprehensive and consequently more valuable
as a statistical instrument.
More recently a move was made to initiate 5 year Census periods
when, on the night of 24/25th April, 1966, a 10% sample of the
population was taken during which, for the first time ever, information
regarding cars and garaging facilities was requested.
Population
General—Determinations of future populations are of vital
importance to governments for the framing of social policies, to
hospitals for the provision of adequate and suitable facilities, to
local authorities who have a duty to plan maternity and child
welfare services, nurseries, schools, housing, etc., and to the Medical
Officer of Health who needs to know and to gauge the effect of
these variables upon the health of the public, generally.
Population levels are dependent on three factors, viz. births,
deaths and migration and the extent to which reliance may be
placed on projected populations rests upon the accuracy with
which these separate factors can be forecast. It is usual, indeed it is
the best method available, to base future trends on past experiences
(extrapolation) and with death rates this has seldom failed.
Birth rates, however, have proved to be rather less reliable and
migration, especially since the introduction of the Commonwealth
Immigrants Act, 1962, is the most difficult to assess. Indeed,
effects following our probable entry into the Common Market in
January 1973, defy accurate prognosis although, at present, the
net outflow from this country of U.K. citizens constitutes the
biggest element in the migration problem.
Preliminary figures for the recent Census indicate that population
statistics, at mid-year 1971, are somewhat lower than the
extrapolations produced by the Registrar-General based upon the
previous full Census of 1961 would have led us to expect. It
follows that rates calculated on the resultant re-adjustments will
cause comparisons with those of the previous year to be a little
spurious.
Reasons for the discrepancy are not difficult to find. Certainly
in England and Wales since 1965 and contrary to expectations
total births have declined by over 9%, fertility by almost the same
amount and, during the last decade, emigration has proved to
have been under-estimated to the extent of an average of 20,000
per annum, an outward flow which is not only likely to continue
but possibly increase.
Population Projections—Even when the new "bench-mark"
provided by the current Census replaces that of 1961 the recent