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22
In common with the rest of the country, however, the age distribution
ratio has not remained constant. Great interest has been
shown and many theories advanced in recent years as to the reasons
for the change in age distribution. Its importance can be judged
by the fact that the Government saw fit to set up a Royal Commission
to enquire into this and other problems brought about by
population changes.
The Commission, in its Report issued in 1949, pointed out that
the rise in the standard of living in the past 70 years was largely
due to the increase, during that period, of the proportion of
"working" age groups relative to others and that this favourable
trend will be reversed during the next 30 years if the present-day
propensities continue. Before the Commission commenced its
investigations it had been assumed that the aggregate of old people
throughout the country was on the increase. This assumption has
been substantiated by the Report which states that one particularly
striking feature of the 1947 age distribution in Great Britain is that
the population aged under 20 is smaller than the population aged
between 20 and 40 and that since 1891 the proportion of young
people (under 20) has fallen heavily, while the proportion over 60 has
doubled. The actual percentage of people over 60 years of age has
risen from 7% in 1891 to 15% in 1947.
Commenting on this trend, the Commission expressed the
opinion that although the expected large increase in the number of
the old makes it more than ever desirable that we should make
greater use of their productive capacity, there is good reason to believe
that the standards of health and fitness at older ages will improve
and so increase the numbers willing and able to continue at work.
In the Commission's view any fall in mortality will only serve to
accentuate the problem and the cost of providing retirement pensions
will automatically rise. When interpreted, this means that
in the coming years a diminishing "working" population will be
called upon to support a rapidly growing "aged" population,
with all its social implications.
No easy solution to the problem appears possible but it is
obvious that every effort must be made to encourage workers, to
carry on after normal "retiring age" and it must be admitted that
even at best, this can only be a temporary expedient.
The national trend, as outlined in the Commission's Report is
also reflected in the Greenwich figures. The proportion of people
over 60 years of age in the Borough in 1901 was 6.8%; in 1921 it
had risen to 8.7% and at the last completed census in 1931 the figure
was as high as 10.9%. It seems unlikely that the 1951 census will
reveal any marked change in this tendency.