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and it is difficult to form a correct estimate during
the interval between the Census periods. Accordingly,
as in 1881, the recent Census shows that, in too many
instances, the estimates were incorrect, the actual
increase of the urban population of the country haying
been much less than that estimated, with the result
that all the rates and calculations based upon the
over-estimates arc incorrect, and require to be revised.
The error has no doubt mainly arisen from the assumption
that the annual rate of increase was the same as
that shown by the Census of 1881, and partly from
not sufficiently taking into account the continuous
decline in the birth-rate and the large emigration of
the last ten years.
During the decennium 1861-71, the population of
the Parish increased at the rate of 27.7 per cent., and
during that of 1871-81 at the rate of 10.7 per cent.,
whereas during that of 1881-91, according to official
returns, the rate was only 9.9 per cent.
In the autumn of 1890, I estimated the population
of the Parish as a whole to the middle of the year
1891 at 118,730; the Registrar-General's estimate to
the same date, based upon the unrevised enumerated
population of last April, is 117,838, the difference
being only 898.
In the two Sub-districts of the Parish—St. Mary's
and St. John's—the difference between the figures of