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10
feature of the war-time statistical basis as explained above, but the heavy toll of
air raids was an important contributory factor. The rate for 1950, at 11.3, is lower
than in 1949, and apart from fluctuations due mainly to sharp differences from year
to year in the incidence of respiratory mortality there has been a declining trend
since 1944.
Another cause of the rise in the war-time death-rate, notably in 1941, was the
increase in deaths from tuberculosis. The rise was only temporary and measured
the effect of war conditions in hastening the death of those with advanced disease.
Recent experience in both mortality and morbidity is more fully discussed in a later
paragraph.
Bronchitis
and heart
disease
The death-rate for the bronchitic and heart disease group has followed a similar
trend to that of the rate for " all causes " of which it forms a large part. Figures for
the component diseases are shown in Table 3 (page 139). Mortality from heart disease
and bronchitis, after reaching a higher level in the early years of the war, subsequently
declined. The 1947 figure is an upward fluctuation in this general trend and reflects
the severe winter. The 1948 fall was a compensatory downward swing. Since 1948
there has been a tendency for the rate to turn upward; a reflection perhaps of an
ageing population, and perhaps of changes in certification practice leading to transfers
to heart disease of deaths from circulatory disease other than heart disease where the
rate was 0.45 per 1,000, compared with 0.65 in 1949 and 0.55 in 1948.
Cerebral
haemorrhage
The death-rate from vascular lesions ot the nervous system in 1950 was 1.11 per
1,000, compared with 1.07 in 1949. The average rate for 1941-45 was 1.15 but a
large proportion of the apparent reduction is due to the increase in the civil population
upon demobilisation, a purely " statistical " effect.
Nephritis
For nephritis the death-rate in 1950 amounted to 0.11 per 1,000, compared with
0.18 in 1949 and an average of 0.36 over the decade 1931-40.
Degenerative
disease

The true effects of the war cannot be separated from the statistical influences
described on page 7 (particularly the change in 1940). Rates in recent years appear
to be running higher than before the war. The total death-rate is thus more than
half accounted for by causes which are mainly degenerative and which, as the more
tractable causes of death at younger ages are conquered, and as the population gets
older, now attain greater relative importance.
Cancer
The cancer death-rate for all ages for 1950 was 2.20 per 1,000, slightly higher
than in 1949, but the increase is mainly attributable to the 1950 revision in cause of
death classification which now places leukemia and aleukemia in the malignant
disease group.
Cancer is a disease mainly of advanced age and mortality is sensitive to change
in the average age of the population which has not only been rising naturally
consequent upon the falling birth-rate during the pre-war years (see Table 3), but,
so far as mortality statistics are concerned, has also been artificially increased by the