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3
Table 1 shows the size and age distribution of the population at the middle of
each year from 1921, as estimated by the Registrar-General. The effect of the falling
birth-rate between the two wars is indicated by the last column of the table, in which
the average age of the population is shown. Despite a fall in the total population,
the number of people over the age of 65 increased between 1921 and 1938 by over
30 per cent. This ageing of the population, apart from the long-term tendency to
depress the standard of living owing to the contraction in the productive section of
the community, has a more immediate effect on the mortality trend. Any increase
in the proportion of the population in the advanced age groups must tend to increase
the crude rates of mortality from those diseases such as degeneration or neoplasm
which operate mainly in these age groups. Mortality is discussed later, but it is
pertinent to point out that the increase in the average age of the population does not
arise only from the fall in the birth-rate. The reduction in mortality at young ages,
though now less dramatic than at the end of the 19th century, still continues, and
more people reach a ripe old age.
Migration
loward the end ot the third decade of this century, there began an accelerated
movement of population from the centre of London, i.e., the administrative county,
to the growing urban areas in the outer ring of greater London. This was partly due
to a desire of the population for a dormitory in less industrial surroundings though
they continued to work in the central area, partly due to the drift of industry to
new factory sites on the fringe of the London area, and partly due to the active steps
taken by the Council to decant population from overcrowded slum areas to new housing
estates wherever these could be provided, in most instances outside the county.
The net loss to the county in each year up to 1938 is shown in table 2. This migration
was selective in so far as the people who moved were younger and, speaking generally,
better in circumstances and health than the average. Some evidence of this selection
is given in the fourth column of table 2, where it is shown that, about 1926, coincident
with the acceleration of this outward movement, the death-rate in the outer
ring improved in comparison with the administrative county, i.e. the ratio of outer
ring to county mortalitv began to fall.
Fertility

This corresponds to a crude live birth rate (see remarks below) of 21.2 per
1,000 civilians.
The provisional figure for marriages is 36,224, or 23.3 persons married per 1,000
of the civil population.
Prior to the war, the birth-rate in London followed the same trend as for the
country as a whole but running at a lower level. Immediate pre-war values per 1,000
living were:—
1931-35 13-8 average
1936 13-6
1937 13-4
1938 13-4
During the war years and since, rates have had to be based upon the civil population
though the births included those registered in respect of non-civilians. In view
of the artificial character of these rates, it is not proposed to reproduce them here,
though for comparability it is necessary to quote them in tables 3 and 4. The
Registrar-General agrees that it would be justifiable to correct these "civilian"
rates by multiplying them by the ratio of the civilian to the total population of
England and Wales as a whole for each year (i.e., assuming that the recruitment to
the forces affected London to the same degree as the whole country), and he has
kindly supplied these ratios. The approximate values thus obtained for the true
birth-rates are:—