London's Pulse: Medical Officer of Health reports 1848-1972
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Hints from the Health Department. Leaflet from the archive of the Society of Medical Officers of Health. Credit: Wellcome Collection, London
Paddington 1911
[Report of the Medical Officer of Health for Paddington, Metropolitan Borough of]
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population.
The estimates of the population used in these reports have fortunately not been based on
the natural increment, but have been obtained by the use of geometrical ratios of the changes in
the populations of the three Registration Sub-Districts which constitute the Borough. Although
the population of the Borough as a whole increased by nearly 5 per cent, during the ten years
1891-1901, the populations of two of the Sub-Districts (those of North-west and South
Paddington) showed decreases. In Table 1 a comparison is instituted between the estimates of
the population of the Borough for each of the ten years, obtained by the following methods:—
(a) By adding the natural increment observed during each year;
(b) By the geometrical method just described, based on the records of 1891 and
1901; and
(c) By expressing the decrease observed in 1911 as an arithmetical progression.
The last method undoubtedly gives the best approximation to the truth, in the absence of
more frequent enumerations and of records of migration. It is obvious that ten-yearly intervals
are much too long for public health purposes, and that the various rates which have been given
in the more recent of these reports understate the actual fertility, mortality, &c. It will be
necessary to re-calculate all the rates' for the past ten years, but it seems to be undesirable to do
so until the final census results have been published and data for the Registration Sub-Districts
and Wards are available.
For the purposes of this report the population of the Borough at the middle of 1911 has been
estimated at 142,541 persons, that is 35 less than the number found at the census. The census
was taken on April 3rd, and the natural increment of the population during the second quarter
of the year was between 250 and 300 persons. No attempt has been made to estimate the
numbers of males and females at different ages, nor the populations of the Wards.
TABLE 1. Population of the Borough.
| Natural Increment during | Estimates of Population at middle of each year. | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter | Year.(1) | Method (2) | ||||||
| 1. | 2. | 3. | 4. | A. | B. | C. | ||
| C | ||||||||
| 1901 | — | — | — | 373 | 373 | 144,349 | 144,188 | 143,941 |
| 1902 | 381 | 293 | 95 | 257 | 1,026 | 145,375 | 145,052 | 143,801 |
| 1903 | 427 | 374 | 296 | 378 | 1,475 | 146,850 | 145,927 | 143,661 |
| 1904 | 448 | 262 | 262 | 493 | 1,465 | 148,315 | 146,815 | 143,521 |
| 1905 | 334 | 192 | 296 | 339 | 1,134 | 149,449 | 147,713 | 143,381 |
| 1906 | 397 | 218 | 333 | 377 | 1,325 | 150,774 | 148,621 | 143,241 |
| 1907 | 373 | 228 | 152 | 315 | 1,068 | 151,842 | 149,542 | 143,101 |
| 1908 | 372 | 221 | 224 | 363 | 1,180 | 153,022 | 150,489 | 142,961 |
| 1909 | 367 | 299 | 107 | 265 | 1,038 | 154,060 | 151,437 | 142,821 |
| 1910 | 354 | 205 | 235 | 333 | 1,127 | 155,187 | 152,396 | 142,681 |
| C | ||||||||
Notes (1) The population being estimated to the middle of the calendar year, the 4th Quarter in
this table is the Spring Quarter (April-June): the approximate date of the census
being at the beginning of that Quarter, is indicated by " C."
(2) The three methods are described in the text. Method " B " is that which has been
used hitherto in these reports. On this occasion the estimate given by Method
" C " is used.
The estimates of the population at the date of the last census are:—
By Method "A," 155,935. By Method " B," 152,876. By Method "C," 142,576.