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1
A. VITAL STATISTICS.
I.—POPULATION.
In 1914 the mid year population of the Borough, calculated by the usual methods, was
estimated to be 142,087 persons (60,021 males and 82,066 females). Following the outbreak
of war the withdrawal from civil life first of males of the true "fighting ages" and later on
of males of lower and higher ages and of women, rendered useless all estimates of population
derived from time-established formulae. For 1915 the Registrar-General furnished an estimate
of the population of the Borough, and for the years 1916-18, two, one the "total population"
and the other the "civil," the former being supplied for determining birth and marriage rates,
the latter for sickness and death-rates. The estimates are included in Table I., Appendix.
Considerations of space prevent a discussion of the values of the estimates, but there is
reason for thinking that the figures are under-estimates, more particularly in the last year
(1918).
Estimates of the populations of the Wards, and of the sex-age constitution of populations
are dependent on the estimate of the total population. Partly because the estimates of total
population are deemed to be vague, and partly because no data are available as to the
numbers of persons, normally resident in the different Wards, who were taken for the
Services or Munition work, no figures as to the populations of Wards or as to the sex-age
composition of the population are included in this Report. The decision to exclude such
figures has involved the exclusion of practically all the rates usually included in the Reports,
and has made a comparison between the vital statistics of the "war period" with those of
years antecedent thereto, a matter of some difficulty. An attempt to meet that difficulty
has been made by calculating "Index Numbers." Those numbers show the percentage
increase (or decrease) in the numbers of births, &c., recorded during 1914-18, when compared
with the numbers recorded in the preceding five years (1909-1913). This method when used
for (say) morbidity or mortality rates at all ages takes no account of changes in sex-age
composition of the population, and to that extent constitutes an imperfect measure of annual
(or other) variations. It may be recalled that up to 1914 the population of the Borough
was a slightly decreasing one.
II.—BIRTHS.
The numbers of births registered locally and the corrections required to obtain the nett
totals are given in Table I., Appendix. The corrected total decreased from 3,031 in 1909 to
2,017 in 1918—a fall of 33.5 per cent. In the five years, 1904-08, the births averaged 3,276
per annum, in the next quinquennium (1909-13) the annual average was 3,008 (a shrinkage of
268 per annum or 8.2 per cent.), and in the last (1914-18), 2,489 (a total shrinkage of 788
births per annum or 24T per cent.). The last period in comparison with that immediately
preceding it shows an annual reduction of 519 births, or 17.3 per cent.
In the first section of Table II., Appendix, the corrected numbers of births have been
distributed according to Wards. Index Numbers showing the differences between the annual
averages for the two quinquennial periods 1909-13 and 1914-18 are included. The greatest
differences (decreases) are recorded in Queen's Park (a reduction of 25 per cent.) and Church
(a reduction of 22 per cent.) Wards, and the smallest (2 per cent.) in Lancaster Gate, West,
Ward.
In the whole period for every 1,000 births of males there were 955 of females. Except
in 1916, births of males were in excess of those of females. (See below).
Numbers of Births of Females to every 1,000 Births of Males.
1914—951. 1915—935. 1916—1,020. 1917—999. 1918—862.
Illegitimate Births.—The proportion of illegitimate births to all births rose during the
years 1914-18 from 6.2 per cent, in 1914 to 10.4 in 1918, the average for the period being 8.2.
The proportion of illegitimate males to all male births was 8.l, the corresponding figure for
females being 8.2—the ratio of males to females among illegitimates being approximately
1,000 to 977, but that ratio varied somewhat widely and irregularly from year to year.
The annual percentages are given on the next page.
B