London's Pulse: Medical Officer of Health reports 1848-1972
View report page
Hints from the Health Department. Leaflet from the archive of the Society of Medical Officers of Health. Credit: Wellcome Collection, London
Paddington 1914
Report on the vital statistics and the work of the Public Health Department for the years 1914-18 (inclusive)
This page requires JavaScript
27
measles.
This observation can be summarised by saying that during 1909-13, on an average
nearly 75 per cent, of the cases (uncorrected total) reported during the year, occurred during
the first six months of the year, and that during 1914-18 that proportion rose to over 88 per
cent. The weekly records show an annually recurrent epidemicitv without that alternation
of years of low prevalence which has been observed in the past. If future observation
confirms the experience of recent years, i.e., since 1914, when notification became compulsory,
one will be obliged to conclude that one effect of efforts to control the spread of the
disease has been to modify its epidemicity.
After the necessary corrections of the weekly records the totals for the two periods of
five years become -1909-13, (3,679; 1914-18, 10,024—an increase of over 59 per cent. The
annual averages for the sexes are shown below.
Measles.
| Annual Averages. | Index Numbers. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Males. | Females. | Males. | Females. | |
| 1909-13 | 646 | 690 | 100 | 100 |
| 1914-18 | 939 | 1186 | 142 | 172 |
The increased prevalence among females is somewhat surprising, but an examination of
the Index Numbers for the usual sex-age groups (see below) reveals the fact that such increase
is largely due to the reporting of cases among individuals over 13 years of age, most of
whose cases were not recorded under the old regime. Some of the increased prevalence
among males is similarly explained.
Measles: Annual Averages. Index Numbers, 1914-18. (Averages 1909-13 = 100.)
| 0- | 1- | 2 | 3- | 4- | 5- | 13- | 15- | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Males | 123 | 146 | 157 | 130 | 126 | 140 | 277 | 590 |
| Females | 139 | 131 | 153 | 145 | 103 | 146 | 192 | 1407 |
To obviate any misconception of the Numbers for the two highest groups, the observed figures are given.
| Total Cases. | Annual Averages. | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1909-13 | 1914-18 | 1909-13 | 1914-18 | |||||
| 13- | 15- | 13- | 15- | 13- | 15- | 13- | 15- | |
| Males | 26 | 41 | 72 | 242 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 48 |
| Females | 52 | 91 | 100 | 1281 | 11 | 18 | 20 | 256 |
The increased prevalence demonstrated by the above figures was not equally distributed
throughout the Borough. Analysis of the figures according to Wards gives higher Index
Numbers (1914-18) for those Wards whence cases may be assumed to have been least
completely reported under a regime which was dependent on returns from the Public
Elementary Schools.
Measles: Annual Averages, Persons. Index Numbers, 1914-18. (Averages, 1909-13=100.)
| Queen's Park. | Harrow Road. | Maida Vale. | Westbourne. | Church. | Lancaster West. | Gate, East. | Hyde Park. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | 141 | 175 | 185 | 132 | 275 | 331 | 233 |
Fatality.—If the assumption already made that a considerable proportion of the
apparent increase in prevalence of the disease during 1914-18, was due to improved methods
of reporting cases, it will be at once expected that the fatality during those years will prove
to be lower. During 1909-13 the fatalities per 100 cases known to the Department were—
Persons 3.7 ; Males 3.8 ; Females 3.7
and those during 1914-18—
Persons 2.5* ; Males 3.1 ; Females 1.9
*Assuming a constant fatality of 3'7 per cent., the total cases during 1914-18 would have been 15,723
instead of 10,024—a theoretical increase of 48 per cent.
e 2