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forward they can only be based on the few years
that have elapsed since notification and enforced
isolation have been practised, and it would not be
wise or prudent to form positive deductions as yet
from such limited experience. Nor has isolation
been universal but on the contrary only partial, so
that nothing definite or absolute can be stated.
There is little doubt but that some cases of
scarlet fever and some outbreaks are more
infectious than others, but there are many points
with which we are at present not fully acquainted.
We are ignorant of the exact nature of the
infection, of its origin and of the possible changes
that may differentiate one case or one outbreak
from another. We know that it is infectious from
one person to another and that it is communicable
in a certain way and that after a certain time or a
certain process is completed the personal infection
ceases, but these are facts that clearly point to the
advantages of isolation and to that isolation being
effective. The most infectious cases, or those in
which infection is probably most prolonged are
those which have discharges from the mucous
membranes—the nose or ear or throat—or in
which abscesses or ulcers have arisen.
It would be an outrage on common sense to
suppose that cases of illness in which the infection
is prolonged could be better or even as well treated
—as regards danger to others—in a small house
II