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4
All to the left of the line is East Ward, and all to the right
West Ward.
Public Open Spaces.
Acres.
Norwood Green 8
Recreation Ground (Southall Green) 11
Estimated Population for Middle of Year 1906, 18,777.
In estimating the population for the statistical purposes of
this Report, I have, as in previous years, entirely excluded from
the estimate the inmates of the London County Asylum,
(Norwood), since the Institution "is of a kind that its population
cannot rightly be regarded as belonging to the residential
population of the District or County." The Inmates of the St.
Marylebone Schools are included in the estimate.
To arrive at an accurate estimate of the population of your
District is a matter of considerable difficulty, as the increase due
to immigration has been abnormal since the last Census, and thus
the usual method of estimation which is based on the average
yearly increase in population during the inter-census period is not
reliable.
By this method we assume an increase since the last
Census at the same rate as between the inter-censual years. Thus
at the Census 1891 and 1901 the population, exclusive of
Institutions, was 5,513 and 10,365 respectively. Taking the
difference and dividing by 10 we get the annual increase of
population.
The Census being taken in the first quarter of the year, and
we require an estimate at the end of June, that is an interval of
5¼ years. If therefore we multiply the annual increase of
population
10365-55133/10 = 485.2 by 5.25
We get an increase of 2,547 to be added to the 1901 population,
giving an estimated population of 10,3654-2,547, or 12,912 for the
middle of 1906 is much too low: the assumption of an equable
rate of increase is not applicable to a district like yours, in which
there has been an abnormal increase in population from
immigration during the last few years.
A much more accurate estimate can be derived from the birth
rate. It is based on the assumption that the birth rate remains
fairly constant for a series of years. This has been the case: