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22
As a result of an examination of the figures introduced
into these tables, and in accordance with the simple rules of
arithmetic, it becomes evident that since the general adoption
of vaccination a change has taken place in the death rate
from Small Pox. That change must have resulted either from
a modification in the virulency of the Small Pox poison or
from an increased capacity for resistance exhibited by the
human subject. To which of these entities in the problem
may the remarkable shrinkage in the death rate be attributed ?
That the change is not due to an attenuation of the poison
is obvious from an examination of the death rate among the
unvaccinated, for since the period of the introduction of
vaccination the death rate among this section has risen. In
the year 1726, taking as a basis for calculation a list of
17,151 cases, the President of the Royal Society, Dr. Jurin,
estimates the percentage of deaths among those who
contract the disease at 16.6. In 1763, and for the seventeen
years previous to this date, the mortality in the London
Small Pox Hospitals was estimated at 25 per cent., and in
the last quarter of the century at 32 per cent. From 1835 to
1865, Mr. Marson, from the analysis of cases occurring at the
London Hospitals, discovers that 35.5 of the unvaccinated
died. Whilst a later authority, Dr. Gayton, in a digest of
10,000 cases treated by himself, shows a death rate among the
unvaccinated of 43 per cent.; and finally, as a result of the
inquiry by the Inspector of the Local Government Board,
Dr. Barry, at Sheffield during the epidemic of 1888, the
percentage of deaths among the unvaccinated was 31.1.
Death Late per cent. from Small Pox among unvaccinated.
Before introduction of
Vaccination.
16.6, 25.0, 32.0.
After introduction of
Vaccination.
35.5, 43.0, 31.1