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7
As the latent period of small-pox is about a fortnight up to
the appearance of the rash, and as the epidemic occurred
between the 20th and 26th, it is evident that the infection must
have taken place between the 6th and the 12th of March. Now
the only cases reported to me during the week ending Maroh
12th were in Southgate Road, Florefield Road, Sandbrook
Road, Ash Grove, and Elderfield Road, but none of these were
in the quarter-mile radius, while the fresh cases were spread
over a large portion of the district, but chiefly for above a mile
in a direction north-east from the hospital. There were other
cases near the hospital, almost all round it, and it must be
remembered that the wind blew from all points of the compass
on those days. If we go back several days we find that there
were cases in Templar Road, College Avenue, Clifden Road,
Ash Grove, Presburg Street, Lynscott Road and High Street,
Homerton, which might perhaps have been the source of some
near the hospital; but I cannot account, in an ordinary way,
for the large number of cases to the south-west of the hospital,
as none was near them. In the absence of any known source
of infection, and from the fact that those attacked could not
assign any reason for the infection, with the other faot of the
wind going all round the compass on those oecasions, i.e., on the
6th, 7th, 10th and 11th (which dates agree with those when
the infection of these people occurred), I feel that I may
reasonably assign this outbreak to infection coming from the
hospital. It has been replied to this assumption that the
hospital then contained fewer patients than usual, but at this
time the practice of moving a large number of patients from
other districts to the hospital was in operation, so that the
number who were returned as occupying beds afforded no
criterion as to the number in the hospital at different times
of the day.
The total number of cases reported to me in each month was
as follows:—In October, 1883, 2 ; in November 20; in