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9
I estimate that the proportion of the unvaccinated under
10 years of age in London in 1895 was less than 16 2/3 per
cent., that is less than one-sixth (16 per cent.) ; or, in
other words, there were of children under ten years of age
at least five times as many vaccinated as unvaccinated.
Therefore, even supposing that the two cases with no
history in regard to vaccination had been vaccinated, and
the non-vaccinated had only suffered in the same proportion
as the vaccinated there would have been not more
than 2 cases of small-pox amongst the non-vaccinated under
10 years of age instead of 104 which really occurred, and
if the vaccinated had suffered in the same proportion as
the non-vaccinated there would have been at least 520 cases
of small-pox among the vaccinated instead of the 9 that
actually occurred, and some of these probably were not
efficiently vaccinated.
Or, in other words, if vaccination had no protective
influence there would have been more than 60 times as many
cases of small-pox amongst the vaccinated as actually occurred.
Of those 10 years and under 15 years of age in 1895
the proportion of the unvaccinated was less than 7 per cent.,
or less than 1 in 14 ; therefore, if the vaccinated had suffered
in the same proportion as the unvaccinated there would have
been at least 468 cases of small-pox amongst adolescents
of these ages, instead of the 32 that actually occurred (considering
the case with no history in regard to vaccination
as vaccinated); or, in other words, about 15 times as many
vaccinated adolescents of these ages would have had smallpox
as actually occurred.
B