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The infantile mortality rate, which is set out on page 15, was 9.19
per 1,000 live births in 1949, being the lowest figure yet recorded in this
district. The figure for 1948 was 16.74 ; that for England and Wales for
1949 being 32. This new low record is very satisfying, and certainly
reflects great credit upon all those having to do with childbirth and the
care of very young infants.
A review of vital statistics, even on such a small scale as recorded in
this Borough, inevitably invites speculation on the trend of population.
Undoubtedly the decline in the birth rate, which we have continued
to record will have a serious effect in the latter part of this century. The
principal statistical observation concerns the proportion of the old to the
young in the State. Where the proportion of the old is in excess of the
young, especially in a Welfare State, it may prove almost impossible for
the diminishing number of young workers to support the ever-increasing
number of persons living at a pensionable age.
The Rowntree Committee of the Nuffield Foundation, in their population
investigation, stated that of a total population in England and Wales
of 43,208,000 in 1947, 5,795,000, or 13.5 per cent., were of a pensionable
age. Other statisticians have estimated the proportion of pensionable to
working persons in the population at present, at 1 in 6. If, however, the
present trend continues, in 20 years time this is likely to become 1 in 4,
One factor of serious concern is the present high level of taxation,
which makes it well-nigh impossible for persons to save up for their old
age, as they did in Edwardian and Victorian times. As a result, more and
more persons are likely to require State aid in their advancing years as
the century progresses, and this burden of providing for the old will fall
upon an ever-dwindling proportion of young workers.
Our outlook on old age, however, is undergoing a change. The onset
of old age (senescence) varies with individuals, and with the advance in
modern medicine, it may be possible to review the arbitrary time-limit now
fixed for a pensionable age. For various reasons, modern legislation has
assessed pensionable age at 60 in women and 65 in men. It may be
confidently anticipated that many persons over these ages will be capable
of doing productive and useful work for much longer periods, and the
accepted standards of old age may have to be completely revised.
During the past few decades, a phenomenal fall in infantile mortality
has been noticed in England and Wales, and the expectation of life and
the prospect of infants reaching full maturity is very much greater than
it was. This factor may to a small extent help to balance the ill-effects of a
declining birth rate on the population.
One other factor associated with the low birth rate is the number of
families who have only one child, with the associated psychological
difficulties of rearing such children. It has recently been pointed out by
the distinguished paediatrician, Sir James Spence, that children reared
singly, without the balancing influence of a large family, in which they
are members of a group, tend to have psychological difficulties at home
and in school for which it is difficult to find a remedy. Nursery schools
and nursery classes in primary schools are increasingly being called upon
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