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the return of the survivors to the community, the births and
the birth rate take an upward curve, such a curve as we are
experiencing now, but at no time does it reach pre 1914 figures
and within ten years the effort is spent. What other detail
can we discern in the picture?
In view of the concentration of attention on the birth rate,
there is perhaps some excuse for venturing some observations
of a general character on this complicated question. That
there is ample justification for anxiety over the population
trend, in spite of the current improvement in the birth rate
and the continued fall in the death rate, there is no doubt,
that is of course if we accept the belief in the universal
importance of the survival of the Western European races
and the English and English speaking race for in many parts
of the world, the reproduction rate has not fallen. The
statistics for our district, although interesting to us, in addition
to being too small to provide reliable hypotheses have
been confused by recent immigration on a considerable scale
of younger age groups of high child bearing capacity and
propensity and naturally with the influx of the younger age
groups diluting the population, a lower death rate, so that the
increase of population in Merton and Morden, that is the
excess of births over deaths, does not exactly follow the
national pattern.
It is this steady reduction in the natural increase of population
that is giving rise to so much anxiety, and it is prophesied
that it will not be long before it ceases to be an increase and
becomes a decrease. While it is true that the downward trend
of the birth rate was arrested in 1941 and started to rise,
reaching 17.7 in 1944, the highest figure achieved since 1926,
this is regarded by experts as an evanescent phenomenon and
attributable to the high birth rates following the 1914-18 war
which in turn are responsible for the present high marriage and
birth rates. The present low death rates are attributable to the
same factor, as the high birth rates of that period are held to
be responsible for a high proportion of the population in the
healthiest period of life, the middle years, and as the population
ages the death rates will inevitably rise.
In the face of such a statement which points unmistakably
to population bankruptcy, the thoughts of the prudent will
inevitably turn to economy and thrift as a means of salvation
and they will carefully examine to see what economy is being
effected and search and probe to see what further saving is
possible. Public Health need have no fear of being asked to
give an account of its stewardship. It has effected praiseworthy
saving in infant life, it has reduced the child bearing
risk; by reducing the stillbirth rate it has increased the number
of survivals, and by reducing the maternal mortality it has
raised the level of continuation of maternal function, both
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