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An analysis of individual wards within the Borough in respect of both 1970 and 1971 shows
that there is no consistent pattern throughout the Borough which could not equally have occurred
by chance. There are, however, three wards which show significantly higher rates than others.
Research Report 13 of the Intelligence Unit of the Greater London Council suggested methods of
grouping wards which allows those in Hillingdon to be divided into three groups. The mean values
together with the degree of variance of infant deaths within these groups can be calculated as
follows:
Group 1 Group 2 Group 3
Eastcote Manor Belmore
Haydon South Ruislip Colham-Cowley
Hillingdon West Uxbridge Frogmore
Ickenham Harefield
Northwood Hayes
Ruislip Hillingdon East
South
Yeading
Yiewsley
Mean 3.1667 4.0000 8.0000
Var. 2.8056 0.6667 17.5556
Although the differences between groups 1 and 2 are not statistically significant those in group 3
are indeed significantly less satisfactory than those in the other two groups. It is therefore clear upon
this analysis that it is the wards in group 3 upon which action must be concentrated to arrest the
current trend in infant mortality in the Borough. In allocating resources of health visitors, child
health centre medical officers, midwives and beds for hospital deliveries the needs of this group
of wards must be particularly considered.
Carcinoma of the Pancreas
This is a relatively rare form of malignant disease affecting one of the endocrine glands and
usually resulting in jaundice (yellowness). It usually runs a rapidly fatal course for which no curative
treatment is yet known. After an impression had been formed that the disease was becoming more
common, more thorough studies of the number of deaths in Hillingdon, in the Greater London area
and for England and Wales were undertaken. The initial analysis is as follows:
There has been a statistically significant increase in the number of these deaths over the past
two years in Hillingdon as compared with the average number for the five year period 1966-1970.
That this is not a local phenomenon is evidenced by a study of the national monthly returns (kindly
made available by the Registrar General) for the years 1966-1970, which indicate that there has
been a statistically significant increase during this period.
Such an increase could of course occur as a result of an increase in the total number of deaths
and the changing age patterns of the population. Initial investigations confirm however that the
numbers dying per million living show no particular trend whilst the number dying from cancer of
the pancreas per million living is steadily and significantly rising. It is considered unlikely that this
increase is due merely to an increase in the number of persons dying. Further investigations of this
interesting observation are continuing. Detailed statistics are shown on page 116.
An examination of such time trends is of particular interest in the field of preventive medicine.
Where disease processes are changing over time it is likely that there may be some environmental
factor which is influencing the trend. Although the identification of such an environmental factor is
often a very long and tedious process it does raise the long term possibility of prevention as the
investigation of the epidemiology of lung cancer so clearly showed.
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