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19
The difficulty of correctly estimating the number of inhabitants
at the middle of the year has already been referred to under the
head of Population, and it has been pointed out that the official
estimate is most likely much below the real total. The exceptionally
high birth-rate is a very strong argument against the official
estimate and in favour of that made by Mr. Baker.
Calculated on the official estimate of the population and the
total number of births registered in the district, the birth-rate
for the year is 34.7, which is 8.2 above the birth-rate for the
whole of England and Wales, and 8 7 above the rate for the 142
smaller towns.
Although according to the system hitherto adopted in this
district for estimating the population this birth-rate of 34.7 is
officially correct, a fairer and probably more accurate figure can
be obtained. If the non-resident births are excluded altogether
and the calculation based on the official population, the birth-rate
is reduced to 33.5 per 1000, and if the basis of population is taken
at Mr. Baker's estimate it is still further reduced to 30.0 including
all registered births and 28.9 when non-resident births are excluded.

In all probability the lowest of these four birth-rates is the
one most likely to be correct. Although it is 5.8 per 1000 below
the official figure, it is nearly 3 per 1000 above the rate for 142
smaller towns in England and Wales.