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But the truth is, that there were only 1G77 births registered in the ycai,
showing a deficiency of 107 below the smallest number at which they could be
reckoned.
It must be mentioned, that the registration of births in England is imperfect,
and it is only from the steadiness of the numbers actually recorded during several years,
that we venture to consider the registered births as a fair exponent of the number of
children actually born. So that, in drawing any deduction from the birth returns, two
assumptions are involved: that the same proportion of parents take the trouble to
register their children at one time and at another, and that these returns are correctly
transmitted by the registrars. If we are fairly warranted, as I think we are, in taking
these two points for granted, then the fall in births which St. Giles's presented in
1858, must either be accepted as an anomaly for which we can at present assign no explanation,
or else we must regard the diminution in births to the number of 107, as indicating
a corresponding emigration* from the district. I may at once confess that I know
of no such emigration, nor do I see that any special inducement has existed for removal
from St. Giles's during the year. Any sanitary measures which can have had for their
effect a thinning of the population, were not taken till the very end of 1858, or the
beginning of the present year, whereas the fall in the births dates from the earliest
months of last year. (Appendix, Table VI.)
Supposing, however, such a movement can have taken place, it would have
this great interest for us : that a population which diminishes to the extent of losing
107 births, ought also to present 87 fewer deaths. If the fall in the births, then, is
to he thus accounted for, two-thirds of the fall in mortality of the year 1858, is also
explained, and proportionately less credit is to be taken for the influence of other causes
in reducing the death-rate. Probability is added to the above hypothesis also, by the
circumstance that the decrease in mortality and the decrease in births affect, as far as
we can see, the same sub-districts; the greatest decrease by far, in both birth and deathrate
being in South St. Giles's; while Bloomsbury exhibits an increase, both in one
and the other.
It has only been honest to give its full value to a possible disturbing influence
of this magnitude, but if its existence were much more clearly demonstrated than it
really is, the main conclusions which have been drawn as to the improvement of the
public health in St. Giles's remain unimpugned. The exact significance of the particular
figures might be drawn in question, but I have throughout guarded myself from
making any statement on too narrow a basis. If the emigration in question could be
proved for certain, I should, indeed find ground for much congratulation in the
removal of some three thousand persons from the very overcrowded parts of South
St. Giles.
Chapter V.—Diseases and Deaths of 1858, in the Public Institutions of St. Giles's.
The Workhouse practice of 1858 has had considerable interest for the Officer of
Health, in indicating the local prevalence of disease, and where sanitary measures were
therefore most required. The information derived from a record of sickness comes
* An emigration to the extent of 3000 persons, if an average sort of population had
moved. It is of course unlikely that child-bearing women should go in a different proportion
to the rest of the people; and there certainly has been no new inducement for such women to
Amigrate.