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23
During the year of 53 weeks, 1731 deaths were recorded;
if this number be reduced in the ratio of 371 to 865.25* (as for
purposes of comparison has been shewn to be essential) the
year's mortality becomes 1704. And the death-rate per cent,
becomes, on the supposition that the population was 74,048,
2.30, on the supposition that the population was 75,155, 2.26,
and on the supposition that the population was 76,437, 2.23.
Now it will be observed, that every one of these death-rates is
below the estimated death-rate for the year of London or of any
(even the most favoured) of its groups of districts. The first
death-rate however is undoubtedly too high, inasmuch as it is
founded on an unquestionable under-estimate of the population.
But is either of the other death-rates accurate? Judging from
former statistical experience, there is some reason to believe
that the estimate of 75,155 is below, the estimate of 76,437
above, the actual strength of the populatiou, and therefore that
the death-rate lies somewhere between 2.26 and 2.23. But it
is, I believe, well known that although the parish of Camberwell
did actually iucrease very largely during the last decenniad,
its progress was by no means uniform; that during the earlier
portion of this period comparatively little advance was made;
that during its last two or three years the advance became rapid;
and that, since 1861, this rapidity of progress has continued
unchecked. This fact, if it be a fact, has no place in the census-tables,
and implies an increase in the number of the popu-
ing to the Registrar General's plan of calculation; since to have done so
would have involved a long arithmetical process, and would have yielded no
adequate results. I have estimated the increase for ten years at the same
rate of increase that took place between 1851 and 1861, and have added,
to the population existing in April 1861, parts of this estimated increase.
* For the purposes of my own calculation I have assumed the length of a
year to be 365.25 days, instead of 365.2422, a difference facilitating computation,
and not tending to mislead.