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vast majority within the preceding six years. It cannot, of course, be
assumed from this that about one-third of the local population changes its
home in five years. The population studied was not a normal one; it
was largely composed of children and it is possible that families with
children move more than those without. Again, it is not to be concluded
that this movement is necessarily one into this district from outside. To
what extent this has occurred, as the population figure of the district has
increased only roughly proportionately to the new housing accommodation
being made available, such movement must be balanced by corresponding
movement of people from this district to outside. Some of it will be the
result of movement within the district; what proportion this forms of the
total is not known. Whatever might be the exact extent of movement,
however, these figures certainly suggest that it is one on a large scale.
Births.
The total number of live births registered during the year was
2,848 (1,479 male and 1,369 female). Of these, 92 were illegitimate, being
a percentage of total births of 3.2. The number of live births registered
in each of the years from 1944 onwards was 3,473, 3,068, 3,934, 3,828,
3,226, 3,083 and 2,848.
1,480 births occurred in the district (1,457 live and 23 stillbirths).
Of this number 345 were to residents of other districts. 1,641 (1,605 live
and 36 still) birth notifications were transferred from other districts,
being mostly of births occurring to Harrow mothers in hospitals in
Middlesex or in London.
The birth rate for each of the years from 1944 was 18.7, 16.0, 18.0,
17.7, 14.7 and 13.9. In 1950 it was 12.8: the national rate was 15.8.
63 (31 male and 32 female) stillbirths were registered, being a rate per
1,000 population of 0.28 compared with a figure of 0.37 for the country
as a whole.
The birth rate for many years has been falling, not merely in this,
but in most European countries, in the United States and in the Colonies.
In this country the fall has not, up to this, been reflected in a fall in the
population figure, because over the same period the death rate too has
fallen. Nevertheless, the nation is not reproducing itself and unless the
birth rate rises the population must fall. The fall, once having started,
again unless the birth rate rises, the population will decline, possibly to a
very small figure. The fact that the nation is not reproducing itself is
best shown by the use of the net reproduction rate, which is the ratio of
the number of future mothers who will be born to the present mothers.
A figure of 1.00 means that at the prevailing birth and death rates 100
women will be replaced by 100 of their daughters surviving to child.
bearing age in the next generation. As long as the figure is less than
unity replacement is not occurring. The rate before the war was well below
unity. In 1939 it was 0.808. After figures of 0.772 and 0.761 in 1940 and
1941, a rise to 0.996 in 1944, it fell to 0.909 in the next year, but rose then
to 1.103 and then to 1.205 in 1947. Since then the figures have been
1.070, 1.023, and for 1950, 0.980. This last figure means that the births
were 2 per cent, below the number required for the population to be
replaced.