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2
A decline would follow, but sufficiently gradual at first not to reduce
the population figure below its present value of 46 millions until after
1971. As in the last war there will occur progressively increasing
shortage of houses resulting from the accumulation of the annual
deterioration which is not at the time being balanced, let alone being
counterbalanced by replacement by new building. This ordinary rate
of lapse will probably still remain, in spite of the result of enemy action,
the largest factor causing the increasing demand for housing. The
tremendous shortage of houses, based on the standard of one family
per house which followed on the last war though is unlikely to be repeated
on the same scale this time. The deficiency then was due to the fact
that the increase in the number of families had been at a greater rate
than the growth of the population. Much of this was attributable to
the higher birth rate at the time of the turn of the century leading to a
higher proportion of persons reaching marrying age ; part to the large
number of post-war marriages, and part to the general decline in the
mortality rate leading to survival of families. Irrespective of the trend
of population the number of families will continue to increase so long as
that section of the population constituted of young adults continues
to grow. The ultimate fall in this section, which is inevitable, will in
time result in this deficiency out-balancing the increase in the number
of families due to the lengthening of the lives of the married persons,
at which time the number of families will fall. For the country as a
whole this time possibly is only a few years distant. That there will be
no vast changes resulting from any change in the average size of the
family will perhaps result in an arrest in the continued expansion of
large towns by housing development. Because much of the industry
and many of the offices which have removed from London will possibly
not return, because, too, of the possible industrialization of other units
of population distributed throughout the country quite apart from the
creation of new industrial units in rural areas future development in
an area such as this might be only on the smallest scale.
The presence in residential parts of the district of premises occupied
as offices or factories in some instances appears to be a contravention
of the Town Planning Scheme. It may nevertheless be of real advantage
to the residents. Light industry to-day can be carried on with such
little interference with the amenities of a locality as to raise a doubt as
to whether the zoning of certain parts for industrial purposes to the
exclusion of use of residential parts of the area for this purpose is to the
advantage of most of the residents who have, because of the localization
of industrial premises in certain areas, to travel distances to and from
their work. When this necessitates travelling to outside the district,
whether to factory or office, with the result that the district is a mere
dormitory for such a large portion of the residents, the most powerful
factor making for the sense of a town with associated civic consciousness
of the residents is removed. The more people not only sleep but work
in the district, the more likely there is to develop that sense of stability
in the persons ; and this should lead to a diminution in the constant
changes of occupancy of the houses. This would help to prevent, to
some extent, the rot which is occurring in certain parts of the district