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12
The fact that the 15-24 age group does not show the same excess
as do the other under-45 groups is of significance, suggesting that
there is not the same relative excess of persons at these ages as
occurs in the other groups under 45.
Amongst those under 45 there were 384 deaths. In 1933 in
England and Wales the under-45's contributed 26.1 per cent. of
the deaths. If the population were normally constituted and those
over-45 were here in the same proportion as those under-45,
applying this ratio there should have been in the district 1,471
deaths (as against the 1,076 which actually occurred), giving a
death rate of 11.1 as compared with the figure of 11.8 for the country
as a whole. On this basis much of the low rate can therefore be
ascribed to the abnormal age distribution of the population.
The Registrar-General now issues a comparability factor for
adjusting local mortality rates for the purpose of making comparison
between districts, the object being to eliminate variations
in the death rates due to abnormal features in the age distribution
of the population. The figure of the crude death rate multiplied
by this factor gives a corrected death rate, which is a hypothetical
figure indicating the death rate that would have occurred in the
standard population, which standard is taken as the present age
distribution of the population of the country as a whole. Owing
to the changes consequent on amalgamation, three figures have
been issued, namely, one of 1.07 for Harrow-on-the-Hill for the
first quarter of the year, one of 1.25 for Wealdstone for the same
period, and one of 1.17 for the whole district for the rest of the
year and including Hendon Rural District for the first quarter.
Applying these figures to the various groups gives a corrected
death rate of 9.5, compared with a national figure of 11.8.
The development of the area has of recent years taken place
mostly in the former Hendon Rural District. The census figures
for 1921 and 1931 in the Harrow-on-the-Hill area were 19,460
and 26,990, the figure of estimated population in 1933 being 31,690.
The corresponding figures for Wealdstone were 13,439, 27,001,
and 29,680, but for the Hendon Rural District were 17,440, 34,611,
and 58,560. The district with relatively the smallest development,
namely Harrow-on-the-Hill, showed the highest death rate,
the figures for the years 1930-33 ranging from 7.58 to 9.45.
Wealdstone gave an intermediate figure ranging from 7.1 to 8.45,
whilst Hendon Rural gave the lowest, with the range of 5.85 to
7.57.
As long as the population of the district continues to grow
by reason of the influx of a relatively low-aged population, the
death rate figure will remain low, and might even fall below that
at present recorded. On cessation of development, for a time
the effect of the child population will tend to keep it down. But
thereafter with the ageing of the population the rate will steadily
rise.