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an intercensal increase of 1.3,069. For the years 1901 to 1911, the population was
estimated as if it would increase in the same ratio. The census of 1911 demonstrated
that there had been a decrease, and the population for the intercensal years had
been over-estimated. The mortality figures were therefore too low. Between 1891
and 1901 small houses were demolished and large model dwellings were erected on
the sites. This transformation did not continue after 1901.
In 1901, there were very few unoccupied houses in the Borough, over-crowding
was prevalent, and it was most difficult to abate it, due to the dearth of empty
houses. In 1904, the number of empty houses became abnormal, and the number
increased until 1908, as is seen by the following figures which the Borough Treasurer
has supplied me with :—
In the quarter ended March 31st, 1904, the number of empty houses was 1,073.
In the quarter ended March 31st, 1906, the number of empty houses was 1,670.
In the quarter ended March 31st, 1907, the number of empty houses was 2,865.
In the quarter ended March 31st, 1908, the number of empty houses was 2,944.
In the quarter ended March 31st, 1909, the number of empty houses was 2,729.
In the quarter ended March 31st, 1910, the number of empty houses was 2,529.
In the quarter ended March 31st. 1911, the number of empty houses was 2,408.
In the quarter ended March 31st, 1912, the number of empty houses was.1,847. .
In the quarter ended March 31st, 1913, the number of empty houses was 1,770.
In the quarter ended March 31st, 1914, the number of empty houses was 1,434.
The population is estimated for each year following 1911 as if it had decreased
in the same ratio as it had in the period 1891 to 1911.
In 1914 there were nearly a thousand empty houses less than in 1911. Allowing
7.7 persons to each house, the population has probably increased by 7,500 instead
of diminishing by over 6,500. The actual death and mortality rates are therefore,
for that reason, better than recorded in this report.
This method of estimating the population, however, has advantages over others
which are sometimes employed. One method is based upon the extent of the excess
of the number of births over the number of deaths in any particular year. The
excess of births over deaths is known as the " natural increase " in the population,
but the accuracy of this method obviously rests upon the absence of any marked
difference between the immigration and emigration associated with the district
concerned.
In the Borough of Stepney, emigration and immigration profoundly affect the
population, and any estimate based upon the natural increase of the population
would be almost worthless. It will be thus understood that, after a certain period
since the census was taken, all methods of estimating the population are liable to
error.