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of the dwelling-rooms, &c., cannot be carried out, because of the
large amount of accommodation required. Assuming the fatality
of measles cases to be 5 per cent. (the Edinburgh experience
varied between 1.5 per cent. and 5.9 per cent. of notified cases),
20 cases for every death registered would have to be provided for.
The number of beds would have to be more numerous than for
scarlet fever, because the number of deaths from measles is
greater; and, although the disease only lasts half as long as
scarlet fever, the fatality is less than half as great. The provision
of hospital accommodation, and disinfection at public expense,
would entail a heavy expenditure.
The annual average number of deaths from measles in London for the ten
years, 1884-1893, was 2,634, representing, with a fatality of 5 per cent.,
52,680 cases, assuming that a half, or 50 per cent. only of these cases went to
hospital, and that they remained one month, then 2,200 beds would be
required. In case of epidemic at least another thousand beds would be
required. For every additional 10 per cent. (over the assumed 50 per cent.)
that would go to hospital 440 additional beds would be required. So that at least
3,000 beds would require to be installed and reserved, if hospital accommodation
were provided for measles. The numbers I have taken in this estimate
are low, and below the probable total rather than above it.