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13
The fall, then, in the younger age groups will have the effect of
proportionately increasing the numbers in the adolescent and middle
age groups, but only for a time, for eventually, by reason of fewer
recruits to this group, the numbers here will begin to fall, and the
proportion of persons in the older age groups will increase.
Now, as deaths do not take place at a uniform rate for all ages,
we will find that as the population passes from a group of expected
low mortality to one of expected high mortality, the death rate will
go up, and this is beginning to show in the National statistics.
In Eomford, however, the building activities will continue to
attract the 20 to 30 year olds to the district, and help to swell the
population at this favourable time of life. And, as the fertility rate
is naturally higher at this period, it is to be expected that the town
will have its fair share of births for some time to come, but how long
this will be maintained will depend on the birth rate, which does
show the tendency even now to a fall.
I think I can safely say that statistically we are favourably
placed in the matter of population, and what has happened to the
Country as a whole has yet to take place in Eomford.
For 1937, we estimate the Birth Rate to be 16.3 per 1,000 of
the estimated resident population, a figure equal to that of 1936.
The Bate for England and Wales for 1937 is given as 14.9, and
for the 148 smaller towns with populations ranging from 25,000 to
50,000, the Eate is 15.3.
The Death Eate for the town is estimated at 10.4 per 1,000 of
the estimated resident population. This figure is obtained by multiplying
the Crude Death Eate of 9.6 by the Areal Comparability
Factor for Eomford, which is 1.08.
The Death. Eate last year for the District was 10.5. The Eates
for England and Wales, and for the 148 smaller towns referred to
above are 12.4, and 11.9 respectively.
The chief causes of death in order of frequency are:— 1.
Diseases of the Heart and Circulation; 2. Cancer; 3. Bronchitis,
Pneumonia, and other Eespiratory Diseases; 4. All Forms of
Tuberculosis. This is the same order as last year.
The Maternal Mortality Eate is 1.1 per 1,000 total registered
(live and still) births, a decrease of 2.5, and, incidentally, our lowest
rate on record. The corresponding rate for England and Wales is
3.1.