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5
The rate of increase of the population is the amount by which
the birth rate exceeds the death rate. Forty years ago the natural
increase was at the rate of 20.48 per thousand of the population;
twenty years ago it was 12.1 per thousand; and in 1933 it was
0.24. For the first time in the history of the area it may be said
that we have reached the stage of a stationary population.
The decrease in the birth rate, accompanied by the increase in
the expectation of life, has—during more than a generation—been
causing a marked and progressive decrease in the proportion of
children in the community, accompanied by a progressive increase
in the proportion of persons past the prime of life. The effect of
such a change in the age constitution of the community should be
to cause a gradual but progressive rise in the crude death rate, as a
larger proportion of the population will be alive in late middle
and old age, and subject to a relatively higher rate of mortality.
Infectious Diseases.
During the first three months of the year influenza was epidemic
in the country and, although the infection was of a milder type
than that of the more widespread epidemic of 1929, it took a heavy
toll of lives. Some 59 deaths in Leyton were certified as directly
attributable to influenza during the first quarter of the year; but
that figure does not indicate the full extent of the damage done.
The chief danger in influenza lies in the complications to which
it gives rise, and it is the complications (and not the initial attacks
of influenza) which figure in the death returns.
There is welcome evidence of the abatement of the mild type
of smallpox which has been endemic in East London since 1928.
In Leyton the "peak" year of the infection was 1930, when 138
cases were notified and removed to hospital. Since then the
annual numbers of Leyton cases have been: 27 in 1931, 14 in 1932
and 2 in 1933. No case of smallpox has been notified in Leyton
since May, 1933. On the other hand, there was a widespread
outbreak of chicken-pox in the area, and its possible confusion
with smallpox entailed constant vigilance and much home visiting.
(See page 42.)
The year under review was noteworthy on account of the widespread
epidemic of scarlet fever in London and neighbouring areas.
The number of patients notified as suffering from scarlet fever
during the year was 743, the greatest number in any year since
1921. The disease was of the mild type which has been prevalent