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32
On Table I are set out the necessary facts relating to incidence
and hospital isolation during the years 1901, 1902 and 1903, and in
Table II the averages of these years have been taken and the
percentage of isolations has been raised to the figure I suggest,
namely, 65 per cent. On the figures thus obtained I have based my
calculations of the accommodation that is likely to be required
during the next few years.
It will be seen from Table II that the average number of beds
estimated to be occupied under these circumstances amounts to 22,
and in order to allow a small margin I have provided in my estimate
for an average of 25 beds. This number, as an average, bears a
very just proportion to the beds (52) that would be available in the
proposed hospital, and would put the Council in a very satisfactory
position for dealing with infectious disease during the next few
years; for notwithstanding the steady growth of our population,
I am of opinion that an increased measure of isolation, such as I
have mentioned, would tend to reduce the incidence of infectious
disease in the future and would enable the work of isolation to be
efficiently carried on, without an addition to such an hospital, for a
number of years to come.
I may say that in preparing these estimates 1 have quoted the
lowest possible cost that is compatible with efficiency. It must be
remembered, however, that the administration of a small hospital,
like the one proposed, always comparatively expensive, and that
an institution of 100 or more beds will always cost relatively less
than one of 50 beds.
I may here be permitted to say that this point suggests the
propriety of the Council's considering a possible alternative scheme
to the one proposed, namely the forming of a joint hospital scheme
with the Enfield Council. At Enfield there already exists a well
constructed modern isolation hospital, which, with some addition
to its number of beds, could be made to serve the needs of both
districts. It would then be of a size that would enable it to be run
on the most economical lines.