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36
10% or 15%. The assumption also is made that the population
growth will be at the same rate as that of the houses.
It is noticed that it is not until after the year 1925 that the
curves of infection show any marked upward trend. Up to
this period Scarlet Fever is very slowly and steadily rising,
whereas the Diphtheria curve is less settled, showing the
greater effect of local causes. This is particularly marked
in the year 1922, where the cases are due to an outbreak of
the disease in a school which affected both Estate and native
children. After 1925, however, the curve representing both
diseases took a marked turn and runs upward parallel to
the population curve, though the Diphtheria curve was a
year later in showing the same acceleration.
It will be noticed too, that in the case of both diseases up
to 1926, the incidence was below normal, whereas since then
it has been above the expected.
This graph therefore brings out the following points regarding
the incidence of these two diseases on the Estate.
1. That the same factors are in operation in both diseases
2. That it is not until the fifth year that the influences
making for excess becomes operative.
3. Having taken effect it has remained operative since—and
further, that it is increasing according to the increase
in population.
In the development of the Estate a change took place
about 1925, not only in respect of the actual rate of growth,
but also of spatial relationship.
The first houses in Dagenham handed over were in Ilford
No. 1 section in November, 1921; this section was completed
in January, 1925, viz.:—1,321 houses in, roughly, three years.
In October, 1923, the first house on Dagenham No. 2 section
was completed, a section widely and completely separated
from Ilford No. 1. In two years 1,986 houses were completed
in two contiguous sections, Nos 2 and 3. The remaining
sections then grew adjacent to these others and filling up the
intervening space, the development of these taking place a'
a greater rate than previous building.
The change, therefore, about 1925 was that whereas up
to that time there was a slower development and also one
less congested; after that date the new population came here
at a greatly increased rate and also was nearer the previousl;
settled portions.