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93
Thus from October 3rd to January 28th, 1906, there were 70
attacks, of which 63 occurred in children who were stated not to
have previously suffered from the disease, while seven were stated to
have suffered from measles at some previous epidemic. It is, however,
doubtful whether these seven children really suffered from
second attacks as we can only be guided by the statements of the
parents, who, in many instances, give the name of measles to any
rash from which their children may suffer. The figures are in any
case interesting as showing that the history as to previous illness
obtainable by the teachers is for the most part reliable, and could
be fairly used in administrative work.
On November 20th the school attendance had dropped to
33 per cent., and the managers were then anxious to close the
school as the work was disorganised and the grant consequent on a
high average attendance in jeopardy. At that time 21 children
were stated not to have had the disease in any previous year, and
of these seven were attacked during the next eight days, while two
failed a couple of months later when the school was open again.
Thus at the most only about 12 children could possibly have been
benefitted by school closure, while it is probable that several of
these were naturally insusceptible and would not have been attacked
even had the school been allowed to remain open.
There are several other points of interest in connection with
this outbreak. First, it will be noticed that there is an interval of
23 days between the first and second case reported from the school.
Now, as the incubation period of measles is usually something under
a fortnight, it is almost certain that there must have been one or
more missed cases about October 12th to 17th, and if the class in
which the first case had occurred had been closed from October 10th
to October 21st, it is very likely that the epidemic might have been
checked.
Secondly, it is sometimes stated that school closure should be
resorted to when 10 per cent, of the children have been attacked.
Had this rule been followed the school would have been dismissed
on November 7th, but it is fairly certain that such a step woidd
have had practically no effect, as 47 out of the 54 subsequent cases
were attacked on or before November 21st, and were therefore in all
probability infected on November 7th or earlier.
I am therefore stroagly of opinion that representations should
once more bs made to the Board of Education to re-enact Article