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SCARLET FEVER.
The number of cases notified during the year was 115 compared
with 122 in 1936.
Original Beckenham.
Fifty-seven cases were notified compared with 71 in 1936.
This continued downward trend was in accordance with
expectations. The periodical incidence curve is near its lowest
point, and incidence should remain low during the next year or
two.
The cases were spread over the whole district, the only noteworthy
feature being the unusually large number of early secondary
cases occurring in families where the original case was removed
to Hospital for isolation and treatment.
West Wickham.
Fifty-eight cases were notified compared with 51 in 1936.
The increased prevalence noted in West Wickham during the latter
months of 1936 persisted through the earlier months of 1937 ;
but after the month of April the incidence rapidly declined. The
peak of the outbreak was in December, 1936. Thirty-two cases
being notified in the last three months of 1936, and 31 in the first
four months of 1937. The total number of cases occurring during
the two years 1936 and 1937 among children attending the
elementary schools was 63, representing an incidence of 5.6 per cent
of the average number of children in attendance during the period.
This percentage is rather lower than that frequently met with under
similar circumstances.
As indicated in my Annual Report for 1936, outbreaks only
terminate when the mass immunity has reached a sufficiently high
level, and the only practicable method of developing this mass
immunity is to allow individuals to acquire personal immunity by
mingling with their fellows.
If mass immunisation against Scarlet Fever by protective
inoculations were a practicable procedure, Nature's method with
its inevitable increase in the number of actual cases could be
obviated. School closure might reduce the number of cases during
the actual period of closure, but it would interfere with this
natural production of immunity, and its ultimate effect would be to
prolong the period of the outbreak, and lead to the production of a
greater total number of cases.
The age incidence of the cases was:—
0—5 5—15 Over 15 Total
Original Beckenham 15 33 9 57
West Wickham 8 43 7 58
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