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7
Reports. This source of error now of course disappears for the
time being, and in such districts an unavoidable break in the continuity
of the previously misleading rates will result. In any case,
however, the maintenance of continuity is, under present circumstances,
obviously impossible, and it is felt that the present estimates
will furnish death-rates calculated to indicate as nearly as
may be the health conditions of the civil population.
The method by which the estimates of civil population have
been derived from the National Register returns may now be described.
The ratio of the total population less the males aged 15-65
years to the number of females aged 15 to 65 years at the date of
the census was calculated for each administrative area, and this
ratio was applied to the number of females on the National Register ;
the resulting product plus the number of males aged 15 to 65 years
on the National Register was taken to be the number of the civil
population of the district. A small adjustment was necessary in
order to make the sum of the estimates for the several districts
equal to the estimate for the Country as a whole made on the same
basis. Further the population in institutions was not registered
and this (taken to be the same in the aggregate for England and
Wales as at census date), together with a number of no fixed abode,
were distributed evenly over the whole Country. These two
adjustments raised the original estimates by about one per cent.
The question of the population to be used for the calculation of
birth rates has also required consideration. The births legistered
are not only those of the children of civilians, and the estimates of
the civil population therefore form an unsuitable basis for the
calculation of birth-rates. It is impossible to frame any estimate
that would give reliable birth-rates, and it is suggested, therefore,
that the birth-rates for 1915 be based upon the existing estimates
of total population for 1914. These will sometimes be seriously
in error owing to extensive migration having occurred. Although
in such cases the Registrar General does not possess the local
information necessary for applying any correction, it is not suggested