View report page

61
reproduction rate. The true death-rate of man is determined
by his mean expectation of life. Taking the latter to be 60 years,
the death-rate is 16.6 per 1,000 per annum. Nothing but alteration
of the expectation of life will alter the rate, and simply to maintain
the population the birth-rate must equal it. There are prospects
of the mean expectation of life rising to 65, and conceivably
to 70 years, but none whatever above that, in spite of some who
think that mortality is not a " natural" termination. Under
present conditions a birthrate of 16.6 is necessary to keep the population
steady, and even if conditions improve almost to their limit
a birth-rate of about 15 per 1,000 would be needed to establish
an equilibrium. Since 1933 the birth-rate has not fallen in most
English-speaking communities—the figures being for England and
Wales:—
1933-14.4 ; 1934-14.8 ; 1935-14.7 ; 1936-14.8.
Although the birth-rate in the past few years appears to have
become stabilised it is obvious, unless an upward trend soon appears,
that the population of this country has almost reached its
peak, and soon there will be a decline. Even if the birth-rate did
not mark lower depths, a decline in the population is inevitable,
at first gradual, but gaining momentum each year. Sir William
Beveridge estimates that the population of these islands in 2137
will be 5 millions, and Dr. Enid Charles predicts a more sparsely
populated England in 2037. Admittedly the problem is a difficult
and intricate one, and because of its difficulty and intricacy
most people leave it severely alone. Possibly it is mainly a national
question, but it has its local implications, and is intimately bound
up with local administration. It will give rise to many economic
and administrative problems, such as unemployment, old age
pensions, hospital accommodation, schools, &c. In last year's
report I gave some tables which showed the remarkable changes
which have occurrred in this district, and those acquainted with
education administration know the difficulties which have already
occurred.
Some people seek reassurance in the hope that the statisticians
may be wrong, as their predictions are based on a series
of assumptions, any one of which may be radicalh changed by
developments 50 years hence, but it may be pointed out that the
forecasts of population movements made a few years ago have
been found since to underestimate the extent to which decline is
threatening this country and several other western democracies.