View report page

47
The two diseases which take up the major portion of the accommodation
at the Hospital are Scarlet Fever and Diphtheria, and
more especially the former. Under present conditions the average
stay of Scarlet Fever patients in the Hospital extends to a period of
45 days. On this basis 33 beds would be required and continually
occupied to accommodate the number of cases notified last year.
This figure is given simply as a basis for calculations, but several
factors have to be taken into consideration.
The first is the fact that Scarlet Fever tends to recur in epidemics,
and 1907 was to an extent an epidemic year.
The second factor is the seasonal epidemicity of Scarlet
Fever. The disease shows a maximum and a minimum seasonal
incidence ; that is to say, Scarlet Fever is usually at its height in the
Spring and Autumn, and least prevalent in the Summer and
W inter. Consequently, it is not sufficient to provide only such a
number of beds that would accommodate the cases if spread evenly
over the year ; and whilst only 33 beds would have been required in
1907 if the cases had been uniformly distributed throughout the
year, the fact was that during limited periods 60 beds were occupied,
and at another time not more than ten were used. It is therefore
necessary to provide at least 50 per cent. more beds than the
average required.
Another factor that has to be considered is the increase of the
population. It increased from 24,206 in 1891, to 37,448 in 1901.
and the estimated population at the present time is 55,000. It is
reasonable to assume that, during the next ten years, it will increase
considerably, though possibly not at the same rate as during the
past dedennium.
All cases of Scarlet Fever need not be isolated in the Hospital,
but it has been found in this district that the demand for Hospital
accommodation, now that the residents have come to appreciate its
benefits, has increased beyond what was anticipated. In 1906, 152
cases out of 170 notified were removed to the Hospital, and in 1907
232 out of 267. This high percentage of cases desiring removal to
Hospital will probably be maintained, owing to the character of the
housing accommodatiou, and the extent of the laundry industry. A
large number of houses formerly occupied by one family, are now