View report page

5
For statistical purposes, the estimated population at the
end of the second quarter in each year is taken, and various
methods have been devised by which an estimate is arrived at,
but it is obvious that the correct figures can only be ascertained
for the end of the first quarter of the actual year in which the
Census was taken.
If there had been neither emigration nor immigration, the
exact population could be ascertained by calculating the natural
increase or decrease in each year, i.e. the increase or the decrease
would correspond to the number by which the births exceeded
or fell short of the deaths.
In Acton, emigration and immigration profoundly affect
the population, and though no information is obtainable as to
the extent of these factors, we are perfectly aware of their effect.
Any estimate based upon the natural increase of the population
would be entirely worthless.
The method adopted by the Registrar General is based on
the assumption that the population increases in geometrical
progression, that the rate of increase which prevailed in the last
completed intercensal period has since been maintained. Such
an assumption is constantly being demonstrated to be unreliable
by the results of the Census. The result may be vitiated by the
introduction of factors which formerly were not in existence.
Any abnormal development within the district is liable to upset
any calculation based on such an assumption. In Acton,
since 1901 the development of large industries and the revolution
of the mode of transit, have rendered such a method of calculation
almost valueless, and one is justified in discarding it.
The nearest approach to a correct estimate will probably
be attained by calculating the number of new houses erected and
occupied since the Census, and allowing 6.2 persons for each
house. This figure represents the average number of persons
occupying each house at the Census, but there is reason to believe