London's Pulse: Medical Officer of Health reports 1848-1972
View report page
Hints from the Health Department. Leaflet from the archive of the Society of Medical Officers of Health. Credit: Wellcome Collection, London
London County Council 1904
[Report of the Medical Officer of Health for London County Council]
This page requires JavaScript
51
This behaviour of the two diseases suggests that a statement of the number of cases notified
at each age in the months of June, July, August, September, and October during ten years in London
would provide material which would at least give some indication, so far as these two diseases are con.
carned, of the effect of the exclusion from school of children of any particular age.
The following table has therefore been prepared:—
| Age period. | Actual notifications. August. | Hypothetical notifications. August. | Difference. | Difference per cent. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0— | 176 | 193 | + 17 | + 9.7 |
| 1— | 580 | 561 | . 19 | . 3.3 |
| 2— | 752 | 780 | + 28 | + 3.7 |
| 3— | 909 | 1,039 | + 130 | + 14.3 |
| 4— | 808 | 1,110 | +302 | + 37.4 |
| 5— | 757 | 1,084 | + 327 | + 43.2 |
| 6— | 589 | 864 | + 275 | + 46.7 |
| 7— | 462 | 713 | + 251 | + 54.3 |
| 8— | 359 | 485 | + 126 | + 35.1 |
| 9— | 297 | 417 | + 120 | + 40.4 |
| 10— | 1,076 | 1,318 | + 242 | + 22.5 |
| 15— | 616 | 687 | + 71 | + 11.5 |
| 20 + | 1,208 | 1,340 | + 132 | + 10.9 |
| All ages | 8,589 | 10,591 | + 2,002 | + 23.3 |
| Age period. | Actual notifications. August. | Hypothetical notifications. August. | Difference. | Difference per cent. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0— | 239 | 220 | -19 | - 79 |
| 1— | 587 | 700 | + 113 | + 19.3 |
| 2— | 1,144 | 1,190 | + 46 | + 4.0 |
| 3— | 1,490 | 1,627 | + 137 | + 9.2 |
| 4— | 1,494 | 1,837 | +343 | + 23.0 |
| 5— | 1,366 | 1,997 | + 631 | + 46.2 |
| 6— | 1,202 | 1,703 | + 501 | + 41.7 |
| 7— | 1,045 | 1,554 | + 509 | + 48.7 |
| 8— | 881 | 1,212 | +331 | + 37.6 |
| 9— | 739 | 1,029 | + 290 | + 39.2 |
| 10— | 2,316 | 3,209 | +893 | +38.6 |
| 15— | 930 | 1,004 | + 74 | + 8.0 |
| 20 + | 979 | 1,104 | + 125 | + 12.8 |
| All ages | 14,412 | 18,386 | + 3,974 | +27.6 |
In explanation of this table it may be stated that column I. shows the actual number of cases
notified at each age in the month of August during the decennium 1895-1904.
Column II. has been obtained by estimating the number of cases by the method of finite
differences i.e., by interpolating the figures for the month of August from the actual notifications in the
two preceding months of June and July, and the two succeeding months of September and October.
Column III. shows the differences between the figures in columns II. and I., which differences
may be taken to represent approximately the reduction in the prevalence of these diseases due to the
fact that during August the children were not exposed to infection in school.
Column IV. shows these differences as percentages. In studying these figures the following
points should be borne in mind:—
(a) In view of the possibility of the disease not having the same degree of infectivity in
different periods of the year, it cannot be affirmed that the same reduction as that observed in August
would occur in the cases notified in other months of the year if the schools were closed in those months.
In some months it might be greater, in others less, than in August.
(b) The exclusion of children of particular ages would not be likely to effect the same reduction
in the number of cases occurring at those ages as would be effected by the closure of the schools.
(c) The exclusion of children of particular ages would not only reduce the prevalence of disease
at those ages, but would affect in some degree the prevalence of disease at other ages, reducing them at
once and probably in after years somewhat increasing them.
(d) So far as increased opportunity for exposure to infection in the street or home would militate
against the advantages gained by exclusion from school, this influence would have been operative in the
month of August.