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6
years immediately preceding a census to regret the
absence of reliable data upon which to calculate our rates
of mortality, &c. It is manifestly absurd to estimate the
population of rapidly-increasing districts by a method
which is made to apply to stagnant if not diminishing
districts as well, viz., by the rate of increase found to
prevail between the two last census years. Such an
estimate invalidates all statistics founded upon it. In
the introductory pages of our more recent Annual Reports
a method was explained for calculating the population by
the number of births occurring during the year, for it
has been observed that the number of births bears a fixed
ratio to the number of people among whom they occur.
That is, the births are not subject to those fluctuations
which occur among the deaths, and the average number of
births per 1,000 in each district being determined, the
discovery of the population from the total number of
births is a simple matter. The average births for the
entire district, calculated at census years, has been found
to be 34.5 per 1,000, or 1 in 29. The population of the
district would therefore be nearly 190,000, estimated
according to this method; this might be called the
estimated population. However highly we may think
of it, we are not at liberty to make use of it for statistical
purposes, and must revert to the plan employed by the
Registrar-General. The population according to the
latter mode of estimating is 164,812, which might be
called the official population.
Births and Birth-rate.— The number of births
registered during the year 1878 was 6,508. The table
below illustrates the steady increase in the number of
births year by year. No less than 309 more births
occurred during this year than in 1877. The birth-rate
is 39.4 per 1000, or 1 in 25, founded upon the official
population, which is an absurdly high rate, and is evidence
that the population is greatly underestimated. Of the