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1908] 4
The percentage increases then have regularly fallen since 1851, while the
actual increases have diminished since 1881. This being so, it is only fair to
assume that the population has not increased at the rate of 4.9 per cent,
which obtained in the decade ending 1900, and that the estimate of the
Registrar-General is over-stated. If this be so, of course the rates calculated
on his figures are not accurate. Fortunately the error cannot be very large,
and assuming that the increase was only that with which the borough is
credited it will affect the several birth, death, and marriage rates to only a
very small degree. Thus the death rate of the year calculated on the basis
of the Registrar-General's population is 13.15 per 1,000 of the population,
while the same rate if calculated on the smaller estimate of half the assumed
increase is 13.47 per 1,000. Under these circumstances and because of the great
uncertainty that exists, it is proposed in this report to calculate all the rates on the
Registrar-General's figures. Nevertheless, it is unsatisfactory to have to do so,
for mortality returns should be as accurate as possible; and were it not for
the action of the Government in 1905 a census of the population of London
would have been taken then, as it had been taken in 1895, there would be
no doubt now as to the accuracy of the birth and death-rates.
It has been suggested that an accurate estimate of the population might
be made from the natural increase of the Borough, that is to say the difference
between the registered deaths and the registered births. Unfortunately
this is not so. Indeed, contrary to what one might suppose, it would
have led to a very serious over-estimate, for the population ascertained
in 1901 would have to be increased by 30,128, which would make the population
for 1908 15,363 more than the Registrar-General's estimate.
An attempt was made to estimate the population on the basis of the
inhabited houses, which the Borough Treasurer gives at 33,000, (clearly not
an exact figure), and of the average number of persons (8.6) inhabiting each
house at the census, but this gave only a population of 283,800, or 66,091
less than the Registrar-General's estimate. With these doubtful figures
before the Medical Officer of Health he had no hesitation in selecting the
official estimate, as he believed the figures were less erroneous than those calculated
by other methods.
In 1908 there were 53 weeks in the official year, so that in order to
obtain rates comparable with other years, they are calculated on a population
the one-fifty-second part larger than the estimate. The last time there
were 53 weeks in the official year was in 1902, and previous to that in 1896.