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29
[1911
These figures show that for some reason or other the population was not
as fertile in 1911 as it was on the annual average in 1861-70 by the large
number of 4,059 births; as in 1871-80 by 3,865 births; as in 1881-90 by 2 519
births; as in 1891-00 by 1,479 births; and as in 1901-10 by 513.
Population taken in the gross is not, however, an altogether correct way
to calculate birth-rates for the purpose of comparison, for not only may there be
a great difference in age distribution, even in the same community from decade
to decade, but also in its sex distribution. There can be hardly any doubt
that the more correct way would be to calculate the birth-rate on the number
of women in the community living at the child-bearing period of life, which
is to say from 15 to 45 years of age. If this be done with respect to Islington
for the three censal years 1891, 1901 and 1911, the following figures are
obtained:—
Years.
Women
aged
15—45
Births.
Births
per
1,000 Women.
15—45
Births
per 1,000
of Population.
1891 84,148 9.797 116.4 30.61
1901 90,309 9,264 102.5 27.67
1911 72,124 8,048 111.5 24.79
From the above figures these facts are to be learned, that whereas the
birth-rate calculated in the usual way on the gross population, males and
females, children and adults, fell 19 0 per cent. between 1891 and 1911, when
calculated on the number of women living in the borough at the child-bearing
age it fell only 41 per cent., which means that if the birth-rate per 1,000 women
at the child-bearing age had been the same as in 1891, there would have been
8,397 births instead of 8,048, the actual number registered, a difference of 349 ;
and these 8,397 births would have equalled a birth-rate, calculated on the gross
population, of 25.65 per 1,000, or a decrease in the birth-rate of 21.47 per cent.
These facts then incontestably prove that the birth-rate calculated on the
only proper basis, has fallen only 4.1 per cent. in twenty years, and has actually
increased by 8.7 per cent. since 1901, or if allowance be made for the number
of increased notifications due to the inclusion of certain births outside the
borough by 4.4 per cent. Apparently then, so far as Islington is concerned,