View report page

21
During the period January 1 to July 4, 295 patients made a total
of 1,257 attendances at 410, Lewisham High Street and 262 patients made
1,033 attendances at Louise House.
Under the scheme approved by the Council, patients paid 2s. 6d.
an attendance, but old age pensioners, patients referred from the
maternity and child welfare centres or tuberculosis dispensary, and
" borderline " cases approved by the medical officer of health were
treated free.
Old people
The question of help for old people has been coming more to the
fore in recent years. This is because of the gradual realisation that it is
almost inevitable that the proportion of old people in the population
will considerably increase during the next 40 or so years. The estimated
figures for England and Wales are that 13.5 per cent, of the population
are of pensionable age — that is men 65 and over, women 60 and over.
This percentage will gradually rise until in 40 years' time, namely 1989,
it will be 19.2. This very large increase in the percentage of old people
is only in small part due to the greater age to which people live. Whereas
it is known that the expectation of life at birth has increased very
considerably (15 or so years) during the last half-century, the expectation
of life at the ages of 60 to 65 has in fact only increased by about
two years. The remainder of the expected percentage increase in old
people is due to the lowering of the birth rate which has occurred also
over the last 40 or 50 years, thus producing a shift in the age distribution
of the population. There has been some increase in the birth rate during
and since the end of the war but the probability is that it will return to
near its pre-war level fairly shortly.
It must be emphasised however that these percentage figures are
based on three assumptions : firstly that mortality will still fall slightly ;
secondly that the fertility of married and unmarried women at each age
will remain constant throughout the period at the rates recorded in *
1938 and 1939; and thirdly that the marriage rates of women at
various ages remain constant at the 1938 levels. As far as Lewisham
is concerned, this borough can be regarded as a fairly typical crosssection
of the population. Its mortality rate and its birth rate are also
sufficiently near the rates for England and Wales that they can be
regarded as similar. Its total population, which is now thought to be
about 230,000, is not likely to rise beyond 250,000. We can, therefore,
make an estimate of the old people (see definition above) in Lewisham,
during the next 40 years, as follows :—
Estimated Estimated Estimated Old
yearPopulation Old People % People No.
1949 230,000 13.5 31,050
1959 240,000 14.9 35,760
1969 250,000 17.1 42,750
1979 250,000 18.8 47,000
1989 250,000 19.2 48,000