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The Pandemic Nature of the Outbreak
The outbreak was not confined to Hornsey. It prevailed in towns
and rural areas all over the Country, that is to say, it was "pandemic"
in England and Wales.
Although this strange disease has been notifiable in this country
for 35 years (since 1912) and has been studied intensively from the clinical
and epidemiological points of view as well as in the laboratory in Britain
and more especially in America, where vast sums have been spent in the
process, it has to be admitted that very little progress has been made
in preventing or controlling outbreaks or in mitigating the permanently
disabling consequences of a severe paralytic attack.
Outbreaks in all parts of the world appear to be associated with
spells of hot dry summer weather. In 1946 small groups of cases in
Hertfordshire and Middlesex gave warning of a possible epidemic in
that year, but a cold wet summer probably saved the situation. The
summer of 1947, on the contrary, was dry and warm and apparently
furnished the conditions in which the virus of the disease flourished.
When the infection has become established in an area, there is a tendency
for the summer prevalence to be repeated in the years following an
epidemic. Here again it is probable that the cold wet summer of 1948
has contributed to the fact that only two cases have been notified this
year. It is a sad commentary on our inability to cope with epidemic
infantile paralysis that we are dependent on a poor summer for its control.
I have the honour to be,
Mr Mayor, Ladies and Gentlemen,
Your obedient Servant,
R. P. GARROW,
Medical Officer of Health.
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