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rate per 1,000 of women of child-bearing age. This rate is called
the "general fertility rate" and for even greater accuracy, this
should be sub-divided into legitimate and illegitimate rates.
As 90% of all births are legitimate it follows, therefore, that the
extent to which people marry influences the flow of births. Moreover,
the number of persons marrying is related to the availability
of men and women within the marriageable age period which, in
turn, is dependent upon antecedent births and the marriages
which give rise to them. Thus it can be seen that future fertility
is contingent upon past fertility. Furthermore, fertility varies not
only with age, marriage and its duration but also with occupation
and social class, with area of residence (whether urban or
rural), with race and religion and with several other factors.
In the decade 1955/64 fertility rose. However, the narrowing of
the intervals between marriage and the first child and between
first and second births noted during this period has been reversed
and, although the proportion of women bearing pre-maritally
conceived children remains high, there has been a marked
diminution in the numbers of children conceived within the first
3 months of marriage. These relative delays in childbearing have
the effect of lowering fertility and may even presage a reduction
in final family size.
Experience has previously shown that earlier marriage leads to
higher fertility. This may no longer be true. Although the recent
lowering of the age of majority from 21 to 18 years by the Family
Law Reform Act, 1969, resulted in a surge in fertility rates at the
youngest ages (a phenomenon likely to prove transient), widespread
contraceptive knowledge and facilities made available under the
Family Planning Act, 1967, coupled with the full implementation
of the 1967 Abortion Act are undoubtedly having their effects
upon fertility rates.
In such circumstances, long-term forecasting becomes even less
reliable than hitherto.
Based upon the 1966 Census and preliminary statistics from that
for 1971, the following table compares fertility rates calculated for
the Borough since 1965 with those for Greater London and for
England and Wales in which (c) is the most and (a) the least
accurate of the three methods usually employed to portray fertility.
Rates for the current year are slightly distorted owing to the
downward adjustment of population statistics necessitated by
discrepancies between the Registrar-General's estimates and actual
figures revealed by the 1971 Census.