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42
changes in legislation, together with undisclosed problems associated
with our membership of the E.E.C., will render population
projections and analyses over the next few years more hazardous
than usual.
Previous population projections seem to have foundered on the
failure accurately to predict the gap between intended and eventual
family size—between attitudes and actual behaviour. However,
recent surveys have shown that this discrepancy has narrowed
and that people have almost complete control over their own
family planning. Couples are now having the families they want
rather than being constrained to make the best of an aggravated
situation. Despite the fact that pre-maritally conceived births
remain high and some women are inclined to increase their intended
family size, downgrading is the present tendency among recently
married women. In the early 1960's investigations showed that
two thirds of all pregnancies in the first 5 years of marriage
were unintended. There is reason to believe that this has now
fallen to one third and even these have resulted largely from
"risk-taking" contraceptive users. Support for this theory is provided
by evidence accumulated over the last few years which
indicates a marked fall in births conceived within the first 3 months
of marriage and an extension of the interval between marriage
and the birth of the first child and between the first and second
births.
Notwithstanding comments made in the previous paragraph,
Greenwich births over the next few years should show an upward
trend, not, however, from increased fertility but primarily because
of the greater number of females in the childbearing age groups
arising from the boom in post-war births. By reason of the spread
of contraceptive knowledge and the greater willingness of the
younger women to adopt reliable forms of birth control to limit
family size in accordance with current practice, this increase is
not likely to be as marked as once thought.
Rationalisation of local industry over the last few years leading
not only to unemployment but enforced emigration may well have
spent its force and a more stable Borough population could evolve
which would be affected mainly by its own natural increase.
Risks of a persistently increasing population to society, its life
and institutions were amply portrayed in the last Report and
reiteration is unnecessary. However, despite the expected greater
emigration, lower fertility and reduction in family size, the Registrar-General
estimates that the total population will continue to
increase, albeit at a slower rate, namely at 0.4% per annum over
the next 10 years compared with last year's projection of 0.6%,