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35
Population
General—Over the past 100 years mankind has doubled but,
during the same period, the world's city population increased
five-fold.
In the year 1948, two-thirds of the world's population lived in
rural surroundings. By the end of this century it is estimated that
60% of a trebled world population will be living in towns. Such an
irresistable encroachment upon rural areas and the denudation of
agricultural manpower must give rise not only to major problems
of food production but also to an accentuation of the perplexities
of conurbations.
Unfortunately, although urbanisation represents progress and
development, with it come the hazards to physical, mental and
social health. Many physical evils, which constitute the most important
of the hazards, are inter-connected and include overcrowding,
noise, atmospheric pollution, lack of light, complicated
problems of pure water supplies and effective sanitation, and
difficulties in accident and illness prevention. Moreover poverty, an
almost inevitable accompaniment of urbanisation, gives rise to
sickness and weariness which, in turn, serve to perpetuate poverty.
Efforts to oppose urbanisation have proved abortive and, in
these circumstances, the creation of environmental conditions in
which human values may be allowed fully to develop has been
found to be the best policy. Such a policy demands, in the first
instance, knowledge not only of existing but also of future
populations.
Determinations of future populations are of vital importance to
governments for the framing of social policies, to hospitals for the
provision of adequate and suitable facilities, to local authorities
who have a duty to plan maternity and child welfare services,
nurseries, schools, housing, etc., and to the Medical Officer of
Health who needs to know and to gauge the effect of these
variables upon the health of the public, generally.
Population levels are dependent on three factors, viz. births,
deaths and migration and the extent to which reliance may be
placed on projected populations rests upon the accuracy with
which these separate factors can be forecast. It is usual, indeed it is
the best method available, to base future trends on past experiences
(extrapolation) and with death rates this has seldom failed.
Birth rates, however, have proved to be rather less reliable and
migration, especially since the introduction of the Commonwealth
Immigrants Act, 1962, is the most difficult to assess.
It has been established that the population of England and Wales
in 1600 was 4¾ millions and that it was only twice this size two