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38
In England and Wales during the past 30 years marriages have
tended to be contracted earlier, especially among females under
the age of 20 years and, although the increase in popularity for
young marriages is losing momentum, nevertheless, from 1951 to
1967 the number of wives in this group has risen from 44 to 77 per
1,000. Furthermore, in the age group 15-24 years, the number of
married males per 1,000 has risen from 132 in 1961 to 170 in 1967
and married females from 267 to 326. To a large extent these
increases may be ascribed to the bulge of population around the
age of 20 years arising from the post-war boom in births. For the
year 1966 (the latest available), the mean age at marriage for
bachelor bridegrooms was 24.88 and for spinster brides 22.54, both
exemplifying this tendency for earlier marriage. Marriages in which
both bride and bridegroom were under 20 numbered 27,000, 12%
more than in 1965 and 50% more than in 1956.
Births
Fertility is a measure of the rate at which a specific community
adds to itself by births. This is usually assessed by relating the
number of births to the population of the particular group concerned.
i.e. the birth rate, but clearly this is not an accurate calculation
of "fertility" since the population figure used contains males
and also females outside child-bearing age. However, the birth rate
does give, in a convenient way, the gross rate of increase of the
population by births.
Fertility varies not only with age, marriage and its duration but
also with occupation and social class, with area of residence (urban
or rural) and with religion and several other factors. Some attempt
at correction for variations is made by the Registrar-General with
his "area comparability factor". Nevertheless, although future
fertility depends upon past fertility, this official "correction" is
unable to take account of human volition and, nowadays, the
position is further complicated by the fact that contraception is
becoming widespread throughout all classes. Long-term forecasts of
population changes inevitably become unreliable.
However, determinations of fertility and therefore of future
population are of vital importance to governments for the framing
of policies in connection with family and other allowances, to
hospitals for the provision of adequate and suitable facilities, to
local authorities who may wish to plan maternity services, nurseries,
schools, housing, etc., and to the Medical Officer of Health who
needs to know and to gauge the effect of these variables upon the
health of the public, generally.