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6
These two adjustments raised the original estimates
by about one per cent.
The question of the population to be used for the
calculation of birth-rates has also required consideration.
The births registered are not only those of the
children of civilians, and the estimates of civil population
therefore form an unsuitable basis for the calculation
of birth-rates. It is impossible; to frame any
estimate that would give reliable birth-rates, and it is
suggested, therefore, that the birth-rates for 1915 be
based upon the existing estimates of total population
for 1914. These will sometimes be seriously in error
owing to extensive migration having occurred.
Although in such cases the Registrar General does
not possess the local information necessary for applying
any correction, it is not suggested that this fact
need preclude Medical Officers of Health from making
use of their opportunities in this direction.
Difficulties, which will probably prove insoluble,
remain as to estimation of populations in sex and
age groups and the standardising factors dependent
upon them. Moreover, the present method of estimation
will obviously not apply to 1916 or subsequent
years unless the National Register is effectively kept
up to date or further enumeration made. Nothing
can at present be decided as to these matters.
The civil population of Fulham as estimated by the
Registrar General on this method was, in the middle of
1915, 151,161, but in this estimate the refugees at Earl's
Court were not included, and as the deaths occurring
among them are not deducted, an addition of 2,000 has
been made to the Registrar General's estimate, this being
the average number of refugees housed at Earl's Court
in 1915.