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male adult population, as well as, to a lesser extent,
the female popuation, has migrated on an unprecedented
scale into areas other than those in which
it was enumerated at the last census.
Under these circumstances estimates of local populations
based on the census returns were clearly
inadmissible, and it became necessary to search for
a substitute. Fortunately this was ready to hand in
the shape of the National Register, which referred
to a date only six weeks removed from that for which
estimates were required, viz., the middle of the year
1915. No doubt this does not form a perfect record
as it is known that a number of persons escaped
registration. From investigations, however, which
have been made in another connexion it appears
that the defects in the register taken as a whole are
not on such a scale as to affect seriously the estimates
of population based upon it. By the method described
below it was possible to derive from these returns
estimates of the civil population only of each administrative
area on August 15th. No attempt has been
made to increase these by allowance for members of
the fighting forces because, apart altogether from the
difficulty of ascertaining the average military population
of each district during the year, experience has
shewn that under present circumstances only civilian
deaths can be tabulated for local areas. If military
deaths were to be included they would have either to
be debited to the area in which they occurred, ai course
which would render the death rates of districts containing
large military hospitals meaningless, or to the
area of residence. An attempt made to pursue the
latter course has had to be abandoned owing to
military authorities having been unable to furnish to
the registrars the necessary information. It has been
found necessary therefore to limit the tabulation of
deaths by local areas to deaths of civilians, and under
these circumstances the civilian population is obviously
the proper one to use for the calculation of death
rates.