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7
Wood's Close in the South) have exercised a most disturbing
influence upon my calculations. For these and other reasons I
have felt in past years that any figures calculated upon rates of
increase or decrease could be of little worth ; I have, therefore,
preferred to base my estimates of population on the numbers of
children born in the district during the year under consideration, as
birth rates are known to vary within very narrow limits. An
inspection of the birth rates calculated upon past decennial enumerations
shews such slight variations from decade to decade in
Bethnal Green that I have felt quite justified in adhering to this
plan. This year, however, I am confronted with a fresh difficulty,
for the births in Bethnal Green during the year 1900 were 156 fewer
than in the previous year. This falling off is, however, almost
entirely confined to the southern portion of the district. Did this
sudden drop indicate that the population had decreased in proportion
and was 4,000 fewer than in the preceding year? Or could it be
explained on the supposition that a large number of potential
parents were absent from the district serving their Queen and
country in the ranks of the regular and auxiliary forces? This last
hypothesis is supported by the fact that the birth rate has fallen
throughout the country. The rate for England and Wales for 1900
was only 28.9 per 1,000, and is lower than that of any other year
on record. Compared with the average of the 10 years 1890 to
1899, the birth rate in 1900 shews a decrease of 1.2 per 1,000. The
Metropolitan rate also has fallen from 29.4 in 1899 to 28.6 in 1900.
The fall is most marked in the last quarter of the year, when it
dropped to 28.6; notwithstanding this, there can be no doubt that
the population of Great Britain and especially that of the large
towns is increasing.
The Registrar General estimates the population of Bethnal Green
in the middle of the year 1900 at 128,831. I did not think our
numbers had fallen so low, but I was utterly unable to form a
better estimate, and was informed that the results of the census
would not be available for many months. Under these circumstances,
I felt that I had no alternative but to accept the official figures. I
had completed my statistics on this basis when I received some